Longevity 102: improvements/trends

Replay the second webinar in our series on actuarial techniques for calculating longevity/mortality rates.

We learned about the current state of longevity in our first session, Longevity 101. In this latest session, Longevity 102, we will focus on how mortality rates are expected to change in the future. These changes are commonly known as improvements, as we usually expect life expectancy to increase over time. To allow for the possibility that life expectancy may not always increase, we also refer to these changes as trends.

We’ll begin by recalling the basics of setting a longevity assumption, highlighting the need to divide attention between the here and now (baseline) and future changes (improvements/trends). We’ll then dive into the different families of trend models, ranging from those focusing on projecting recent data into the future to those being entirely shaped by expert opinion, exploring the differences between deterministic and stochastic models as we go. Finally, we'll round off by digging into regression models, structural stochastic models, and structural expert judgment models.

The aim is for you to come away with a familiarity with the core families of longevity improvement/trend models and an appreciation of the pros and cons for each group.

Please click here to access slides from this webinar.