On last Tuesday’s cancer edition of “the Risk of Living Longer”, Xiao Gao cited cancer vaccines as one of three catalysts for her optimistic cancer scenario to become reality. Three days later, the UK’s NHS announced the start of the first large scale trial of a new class of “therapeutic” cancer vaccines. If you missed the live webinar, you can find the recording here.
These are a different style of vaccine to those that you are probably familiar with. You may have heard about the excitement around the potential eradication of cervical cancer by attacking the (human papillomavirus) virus that causes it. Confusingly, this new class of vaccine is designed as a treatment rather than a prevention. This NHS article explains that “the reason they are called vaccines is because they teach the immune system to fight cancer, in the same way that vaccines teach the immune system to protect itself from viruses and bacteria”.
These therapeutic vaccines use the mRNA biotechnology that was so effective in conquering COVID-19. The aim is to treat a basket of different cancers, with tumour and blood samples being used to match suitable patients to the appropriate vaccine. They are personalised “big data” solution.
The good news on cancer does not stop there. Last weekend a trio of exciting reports from the American Society of Clinical Oncology conference in Chicago arrived like London buses:
1. Earlier alerts to returning breast cancer
Although survival rates have materially improved, breast cancer remains the second most common cause of cancer death in women (after lung cancer). This new blood test is an example of a polygenic risk score (another big data example). It creates an earlier warning system of recurrence of breast cancer, so holding out the potential for better treatment options.
2. A simpler and more predictive test for prostate cancer
Currently, testing for prostate cancer – the second biggest cancer killer in men - is either unreliable (a blood test for PSA) or so undignified it acts as a deterrent. The hope is that this more reliable saliva test opens-up mass testing at home, thereby picking up many more cancers at an earlier stage, when they are much more treatable.
3. A much-needed treatment for lung cancer
If you were wondering what was the biggest cancer killer for Britons, lung cancer takes that accolade for both men and women: a sad consequence of the past popularity of smoking. Lung cancer survival rates are particularly poor because of the challenges in spotting it early, and the depressingly limited treatment options. So, it’s great to hear of the excitement surrounding a new immunotherapy drug.
Given the number of people diagnosed with lung, breast and prostate cancers, I hope that these breakthroughs lead to earlier diagnoses and brighter prognoses in the coming years.
Going back to the modelling framework for insurers that Xiao sketched out on the webinar, I note that these examples actually hit all three of her sources of propulsion to lower mortality: earlier detection, therapeutic cancer vaccines and immunology treatments.
So, a question for my fellow actuaries, when we model long-term longevity improvements, should we be taking greater note of the seemingly rapidly changing biotechnology in the pipeline?