Question:
Have we seen an end to extreme COVID waves of excess death in the US?
Answer:
We can’t know for sure whether a more deadly strain of the virus will circulate through the population in the future, but the US death data now available for 2023 certainly paints a more positive picture than we’ve seen in the recent past.
The chart below shows weekly deaths in the US from 2020 through the end of 2023. Each vertical line represents one week of deaths. The dotted line represents the expected deaths for a particular week based on the linear trend of deaths in the 2015-2019 period. We can see that the last extreme wave of excess deaths occurred at the beginning of 2022, corresponding to the circulation of the omicron variant of COVID-19. Since then, deaths have followed a much more stable pattern. (We note there are still some regional variations in the recent death patterns in the US, you can find more details in our recent article: How different states have experienced COVID-19).
Source: National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data on CDC Wonder downloaded on Feb 27th, 2024
Key takeaways
- The last distinct wave of excess deaths in the US was at the beginning of 2022, corresponding to the circulation of the omicron variant of COVID-19
- Since then deaths have followed a much more stable pattern – potentially settling into the much anticipated “new normal”
- There are still regional variations of excess mortality across the US, you can find a more detailed look at the picture for specific regions and states here.
The key questions are:
- Will this stable pattern of deaths continue through 2024 and beyond?
- Has this pattern been echoed in pension plan data?
- How should we allow for this emerging data when modeling future mortality, either for the general population or for insured lives?